Posts
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Fault Lines in Focus
A short-term framework update on Hormuz risk, Chinese property, the yen, and German adjustment, as they surface across markets, data, and policy.
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The German Economic Model in a Fractured World
Germany’s fiscal turn reflects a deeper regime shift: the old export model built on cheap energy, globalization, and restraint is giving way to defense spending, infrastructure needs, and less exceptional Bunds.
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The Yen and the Cost of Normalization
Japan's monetary exit is caught between a weak yen and the rising fiscal cost of higher rates.
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Concrete Cracks, Gold Glitters: China’s Search for a New Store of Value
A savings-channel thesis for gold as China's property bust continues.
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Long the Echo, Not the Shock: Wheat, Sugar and SONIA in an Oil Shock
Asymmetric trade construction during a Hormuz disruption.
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Debt Mechanics and the Dollar
Currency crises offer a framework for understanding U.S. debt stress and the dollar’s global role.
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Lessons from 1996
The dot-com bubble shows why being right about excess is different from being able to profit from it.
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