Independent research on global markets.

Iran’s Economic Dislocation

Examining the economic effects of a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Sep 15, 2026 9 min read

Iran Rial

Selected frameworks

China property & gold/CNY Household balance sheets, defensive saving, and alternative stores of value.
Japan normalization & yen Yield differentials, JGB constraints, and the cost of a potentially weaker currency.
Germany fiscal shift & Bunds Defense, investment, and the changing economics of Bunds.
Energy shock transmission Oil, food, rates, and the second-order effects of supply disruption.

Latest research

Aug 29, 2026

Revisiting Wheat and Sugar
Exploring recent developments in the wheat and sugar markets.
10 min read
Commodities Wheat Sugar Updates
Aug 2, 2026

Eurozone Debt
Exploring how national saving, sovereign debt, and the ECB’s bond market backstop interact inside the eurozone.
14 min read
Eurozone Rates Debt Saving
Jul 25, 2026

Brazil’s Equilibrium
Why Brazil’s strong export engine supports the real without guaranteeing currency appreciation.
18 min read
Brazil Real FX Emerging Markets Commodities

Browse the complete archive 11 research notes

Sep 15, 20269 min read
Iran’s Economic Dislocation
Examining the economic effects of a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Aug 29, 202610 min read
Revisiting Wheat and Sugar
Exploring recent developments in the wheat and sugar markets.
Aug 2, 202614 min read
Eurozone Debt
Exploring how national saving, sovereign debt, and the ECB’s bond market backstop interact inside the eurozone.
Jul 25, 202618 min read
Brazil’s Equilibrium
Why Brazil’s strong export engine supports the real without guaranteeing currency appreciation.
Jun 29, 202611 min read
Fault Lines in Focus
A short-term framework update on Hormuz risk, Chinese property, the yen, and German adjustment, as they surface across markets, data, and policy.
Jun 10, 202629 min read
The German Economic Model in a Fractured World
Germany’s fiscal turn reflects a deeper regime shift: the old export model built on cheap energy, globalization, and restraint is giving way to defense spending, infrastructure needs, and less exceptional Bunds.
May 29, 202625 min read
The Yen and the Cost of Normalization
Japan's monetary exit is caught between a weak yen and the rising fiscal cost of higher rates.
May 14, 202625 min read
Concrete Cracks, Gold Glitters: China’s Search for a New Store of Value
A savings-channel thesis for gold as China's property bust continues.
May 1, 202614 min read
Long the Echo, Not the Shock: Wheat, Sugar and SONIA in an Oil Shock
Asymmetric trade construction during a Hormuz disruption.
Apr 26, 202612 min read
Debt Mechanics and the Dollar
Currency crises offer a framework for understanding U.S. debt stress and the dollar’s global role.
Apr 16, 202612 min read
Lessons from 1996
The dot-com bubble shows why being right about excess is different from being able to profit from it.